LEAF Year End Review 2025

2025 Stats:

QQQ NASDAQ ETF +20.2%

LEAF +25.4%

It was a great year for the strategy. Seldom would you expect to outperform in a such a strong year for stocks. But thanks to gold's +65% run, the Risk Off side of the strategy was not a drag on performance.

LEAF Risk On contributed +21.4% with the Risk Off portfolio contributing +4.0%. 

April's two-day tariff tantrum caused our drawdown to reach -13% as VIX products were the only hedge to perform well during this unusual period. But the dip created the opportunity to quickly "buy the dip", as part of the strategy's mean reversion strategy.   

Drawdown comparison.  Outside of the tariff tantrum, LEAF captured very little of the NASDAQ's downside.  Leaf versus NASDAQ QQQ ETF: Drawdowns

LEAF versus NASDAQ: Performance 2025

LEAF has been especially efficient over the past 5 months. It's been a beneficial period where we get excited when stocks are down because that's where LEAF can open up an advantage (smaller drawdowns in LEAF retain capital, allowing for possible increased performance in up markets versus the NASDAQ). Additionally drawdowns allow for rebalancing into increased equity allocations.

Performance Focus - Mid August 2025 through Mid January 2026

We are working on attribution analysis, full detail in future updates.  Thank you for your interest!

regards, Tim Morton